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Image caption, "I don't feel I have to choose between being a gay man and an England fan," says PhilPhil, 39, is a lifelong football...

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Can Pakistan avoid becoming an international basket case?

Nov 28, 2022 World News

Author: Feisal Khan, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

The infelicitous phrase ‘international basket case’ might better apply to Pakistan today than when it was applied to Bangladesh in the 1970s — Pakistan’s former eastern half. Bangladesh has surpassed Pakistan economically and in quality of life. There is even talk of Bangladesh graduating to upper middle-income country status. Quite a reversal of fortune as no one talks about Pakistan that way.

Pakistani economists lament that Bangladesh overtook Pakistan in just a couple of decades. Pakistan’s remittance earnings are greater than its stagnating export earnings, and both combined can’t pay for its imports. The Pakistani economy is in a precarious state and some are calling for Pakistan to suspend payment on its ever-increasing foreign debt, the largest portion held by China at 30 per cent.

An increase in Pakistani tax revenue is good news, but it remains to be seen if Pakistan can improve its tax to GDP ratio, which sits among the world’s lowest at 9.5 per cent. Pakistan’s budget deficit is 7.9 per cent of GDP and continues to remain dangerously high despite continual government promises to the IMF that it will put its fiscal house in order.

Successive Pakistani finance ministers have long promised to raise, even double, Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio but have proven unsuccessful after facing determined opposition. Entire sectors of the Pakistani economy — agriculture, retail and real-estate development — are essentially untaxed. For example, OECD countries collect about 2 per cent of GDP in property taxes versus 0.6 per cent in emerging market economies but Pakistan’s figure is a mere 0.1 per cent. By some estimates, 50 per cent of Pakistan’s work force is in the untaxed economy, accounting for about 35 per cent of GDP.

Some good news here is that much of the powerful Pakistani military’s vast business empire is no longer tax-exempt. But the military continues to run some of the country’s largest firms — Pakistan’s largest single public works contractor (the Frontier Works Organization), chemical fertilizer maker (Fauji Fertilizer), urban real estate developers (Defense Housing Authorities) and transportation firm (the National Logistics Cell).

As long as the unholy economic trinity of real estate development, retail business and the sugarcane barons remain outside the tax net, Pakistan will not be able to generate enough fiscal revenue to pay its bills, much less improve its socio-economic welfare indicators.

Pakistan has serious long-term structural economic problems, and the costs for this year’s devastating floods will be in the tens of billions of dollars. Suffering from mammoth floods every 10–12 years, which are becoming worse and more frequent due to climate change, Pakistan is one of the world’s most water-stressed countries.

Rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure will be impossible for a country that is already heavily indebted, desperate for an IMF bailout and begging for financial assistance from the world community. Inflation was high even before the floods hit and is now about 25 per cent and climbing.

Miftah Ismail, who negotiated the US$1.17 billion temporary IMF bailout, was Pakistan’s fourth finance minister in five years. Ismail resigned and was replaced by ex-finance minister Ishaq Dar. Dar has ruled out a loan default, although he has asked for US$27 billion in bilateral-debt rescheduling, presumably to ensure the repayment of sukuk (Islamic bonds) due in December.

Dar is generally held responsible for Pakistan’s economic woes during the Pakistan Muslim League’s (PML) last ruling stint. He is regarded as a crony of the Sharif brothers — Nawaz who served thrice as prime minister, and current prime minister Shahbaz. Dar fled the country rather than face corruption charges but had his arrest warrants quashed to enable his return. There are also serious corruption charges against both Sharif brothers.

The Pakistan People’s Party is the PML’s long-time opponent but is currently allied with it against ousted prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Istiqlal. It also has a serious corruption problem. The former Pakistan president and current party leader Asif Ali Zardari was known as Mr 10 per cent.

Pakistan is a corrupt rentier state. The elite depend upon extracting rents, whether from its geo-strategic position, massive foreign aid — loans or other assistance — or remittances from Pakistani workers toiling in the Gulf. Because it is a consumption focussed elite that does not reinvest in the Pakistani economy, there is precious little economic development to show for all this inflow. The ability of its economy to manufacture and export high value added items — essential for sustaining growth in real worker wages and living standards — is lower than comparable countries.

Further complicating the political situation is former prime minister Imran Khan who was removed in a vote of no confidence in April 2022. Still, Khan appears to be gaining in popularity daily and is planning mass rallies to destabilise the current government and force early elections. General Bajwa, the head of Pakistan’s army, and a particular target of Imran Khan’s, has retired, but his replacement, General Asim Munir, is also likely to be in Imran’s cross-hairs. This will further exacerbate political tensions and increase the likelihood of domestic unrest.

Pakistan is a country that is unstable at the best of times. It now confronts a veritable devil’s brew of natural disaster, economic crisis and political instability.

Feisal Khan is in the Economics Department at Hobart and William Smith Colleges, New York.

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World Cup 2022: ‘Being a gay fan in Doha is so taboo we’re invisible’

Nov 29, 2022 World News

Image caption,

“I don’t feel I have to choose between being a gay man and an England fan,” says Phil

Phil, 39, is a lifelong football fan who’s in Qatar for his fourth World Cup in a row. Qatar has said “everyone is welcome”, but as a gay man travelling in a country where same-sex relationships are criminalised, he tells us through his diary how the experience has been challenging.

Tuesday 22 November, 18:00 – Heathrow Terminal 5

On the way to the World Cup in Russia in 2018, the airport was absolutely packed with fans from around the world, but it just looks like an average Tuesday here tonight.

I’ve been an England fan for longer than I’ve known what the word “gay” means. My first memories of football are of watching the World Cup in 1990 at my grandparents’ house, and being allowed to stay up late for England games.

I’m aware that my decision to go to Qatar puts me in the substantial minority of gay England fans – but if we’re serious that the game is for everyone, I’m not going to let Qatar’s despicable LGBT rights stop me from enjoying the game that I love. I don’t feel I have to choose between being a gay man and an England fan.

I accept that I’m saying that from a position of extreme privilege. There’s a layer of protection that applies to me as a western foreigner that wouldn’t apply to LGBTQ Qataris. That’s what I’m most conflicted about.

Wednesday 23 November, about 14:30 – Khalifa International Stadium

I’m just walking out of the stadium after the first game, Japan 2-1 Germany. A superb game.

But it’s all very odd here. There’s a sterile atmosphere inside the stadiums, no-one seems to quite know what to do. Security are managing things quite closely – there’s a specific area to have your flags and banners examined before going in.

Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

Security is high at the stadiums in Doha

Thursday 24 November, 01:15

On the metro tonight I saw a sign saying football is “a vehicle for respecting human rights”, to which the obvious question is – but whose human rights?

There is a tonne of security inside the stadiums, more than I’ve seen at any of the other tournaments. It’s curious because the atmosphere here seems to be non-threatening. So what exactly are they looking out for?

20:10 – Souq Waqif

I spoke to a gay fan from the Netherlands in a bar earlier. Like me, he feels somewhat conflicted about being here.

I also had one of my dating apps open today and got several messages from Saudi men. So the Qataris may pretend that queer life in the Middle East is dead, but online it’s alive and well.

Image source, PA Media
Image caption,

Fans have been celebrating in Doha’s Souq Waqif

Saturday 26 November, 00:15 – Al Bayt Stadium

Just finished watching England v USA. At half-time I bumped into an England fan who was wearing a rainbow ribbon, and asked him if he had any issues getting into the stadium. Apparently he was looked over by three or four different people, but was then told, “oh, it’s OK now”. I’ve also seen a couple of fans in USA jerseys with rainbow numbers on the back, so I guess “green shoots” is the phrase.

I’ve been thinking about that “football is for everyone” slogan quite a lot since I’ve been here. I think the locals genuinely do believe it, they just don’t consider gay fans as part of the equation. It’s not necessarily homophobic, it’s just such a taboo topic that we’re invisible.

It’s one of the reasons a lot of my fellow LGBT fans haven’t been able to come out here – they’ve felt, for understandable reasons, excluded.

About 14:30 – Al Janoub Stadium

I’m walking out of the stadium at the end of the Australia v Tunisia game.

Just after half-time, a group of Tunisian fans unfurled a massive flag saying “Free Palestine”. Nothing wrong with that – but when officials talk about keeping politics out of sport, and then a flag that size is allowed in by the flag police at the stadium.

Image source, EPA
Image caption,

During the Australia v Tunisia game, fans unfurled a banner that read “Free Palestine”

Almost 22:00 – outskirts of Doha

We’ve watched France vs Denmark in downtown Doha with groups of Mexican, Argentinian and European fans, talking about how this compares to other World Cups. For me, there’s a lot to like about how Qatar have run this from a purely football perspective, and on the field there’ve been some good games.

But what I keep coming back to is the sheer hypocrisy of the messaging, “say no to discrimination”. I’ve met a couple of people who’ve said, “you’re perfectly safe here, why does it matter that you’re gay?”.

I know I do have that privilege of being relatively safe compared to LGBT Qataris, but unless you’ve actually walked in our shoes, and have felt that feeling of unease, of feeling excluded, it’s very hard to describe.

Sunday 27 November, 05:15 – Doha Hamad International Airport

I’m about to get on my flight back to the UK, so, signing off for the last time in Qatar.

When Qatar was awarded the World Cup in 2010, there was an outcry – but it was more about the corruption allegations, not LGBT rights. Perhaps that’s a measure of the progress within Europe and the UK.

Have I ever felt concerned for my safety here? No. Do I think I would’ve done, under other circumstances? Also no again. But do I feel that my experience here has been compromised by knowing what happens to the local LGBT population? Yes, I do.

We’re told to just “focus on the football”, but there are things in life that are more important.

Image source, Reuters
Image caption,

Qatar’s hosting of the World Cup has been controversial since it was first announced in 2010

As told to Josh Parry and Ashitha Nagesh. Phil shared his experience with us through voice notes on an encrypted messaging app. We are not publishing his full name.

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Tuesday 22 November, 18:00 – Heathrow Terminal 5

Wednesday 23 November, about 14:30 – Khalifa International Stadium

Thursday 24 November, 01:15

20:10 – Souq Waqif

Saturday 26 November, 00:15 – Al Bayt Stadium

About 14:30 – Al Janoub Stadium

Almost 22:00 – outskirts of Doha

Sunday 27 November, 05:15 – Doha Hamad International Airport

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