The number of Chinese visitors to Japan dropped sharply last month amid a diplomatic row over Taiwan. With Beijing again warning against travel to Japan during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, analysts have been closely watching to see how much damage the slowdown might inflict on the Japanese economy.
Though Chinese tourism has plunged, overall visitor numbers have only dipped slightly as Japanese travel operators pivot to alternative markets. Meanwhile, Japan’s airlines have unexpectedly seen an uptick in demand on their China routes.
Japanese carriers have increased their number of flights to China from 189 in late October to 203 as of January 12, according to data from the British aviation intelligence firm OAG. Budget airlines Peach Aviation and Spring Japan have seen the sharpest rises.
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Beijing has since issued another advisory ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls in mid-February, leading top Chinese carriers and several regional peers to offer passengers free refunds or changes to any bookings to Japan made before January 26.
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While many in China cancelled plans to visit Japan after the advisories went out, there is still significant demand for China-Japan routes from tourists, business travellers and cross-Pacific flights that use Tokyo as a layover, aviation sector analysts said.
“Chinese airlines are reducing flights, so they’re shifting to the Japanese airlines and so the number of passengers is increasing,” said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy. “The Japanese carriers are making some money on that.”