For 15 years, the treaty functioned as a stabilising force between the world’s two largest nuclear powers, setting limits on deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems while institutionalising transparency through inspections and regular communication.
Its lapse, analysts warn, risks normalising nuclear expansion, especially for North Korea, at a time when denuclearisation norms are already under strain.
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Shin Beom-cheol, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said international pressure on Pyongyang to denuclearise could weaken following the treaty’s expiration, giving the secretive regime room to justify further arms expansion.
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South Korea must strengthen its security posture, including accelerating plans for nuclear-powered submarines, to prepare even for “worst-case scenarios”, at a time when the US was reducing its level of regional engagement, Shin said.