New numbers out of the Kalshi prediction market show a six-month trend in which Democrats’ odds of regaining control of the House of Representatives have been steadily and significantly declining.
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Kalshi is a federally regulated financial exchange and prediction market platform that allows users to buy and sell “event contracts” tied to the outcomes of real-world events. Essentially, a wagering site where you can cash in on predictions of future events.
One such event, whether or not Democrats or Republicans will have control of the House after the 2026 midterms, has seen quite a bit of action. The latest action should have Democrats feeling a little uneasy.
The resistance party, according to Kalshi, had an 83.8 percent chance of gaining control of the House on April 11th, while the GOP’s chance of maintaining control stood at just 16.3 percent. Those were respective highs and lows for each party at the time.
Since then, the downward slope for the Democrats has been pretty pronounced on their charts. As of today, the Democratic odds have dropped to 62.6 percent—a 21.2 percentage point drop.
CNN data guru Harry Enten delivered the bad news for the obstructionist party (good news for America) this morning, pointing out that their chances of gaining control of the key chamber of Congress are sinking faster than the Titanic.
Democrats’ chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months…
Why?
1. Dems aren’t keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot.
2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting. pic.twitter.com/iauGwkTmp2
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 15, 2025
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READ MORE: Dems Continue to Flounder on Top Issues As GOP Support Grows—Even on Gun Control
“We were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi Prediction Market odds,” Enten said of the April numbers. “We saw them at an 83 percent chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down.”
“Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance.”
Simply brutal. Not to mention, this is a significant blow to the narrative that the Trump GOP is headed for disaster in the midterms. Yes, the odds are still in the opposition’s favor, but this is a significant downward trend for them.
Enten went on to point out that Democrats are lagging behind their own pace on the generic congressional ballot during Trump’s first midterm elections. Worse, the redistricting battle could yield several seats for the GOP.
“If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said, adding that the Supreme Court’s actions on the Voting Rights Act going forward could exacerbate that. “If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats.
“It’s a different new landscape.”
Isn’t everything in the Trump era a whole new landscape?
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RedState’s Nick Arama provides a further breakdown of the redistricting battle, which spells doom for Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, AOC, and their allies. It’s worse than Enten suggests, with Politico warning that the total number of seats could be as many as 27.
The latest bad news comes as a Reuters/Ipsos poll from last month shows that the Democrats are being pilloried on key issues. In that poll, the party lags behind the GOP on a plethora of matters, including crime, immigration, foreign policy, and the economy.
They even trail in regards to gun control and political extremism.
Reuters poll on which political party Americans think has a better plan to deal with the following issues:
Crime: Republicans +20
Immigration: R +18
Foreign conflict: R +12
Economy: R +10
Corruption: R+6
Gun control: R+4
Political extremism: R+4Democrats are in big trouble pic.twitter.com/rG8L4PMuJz
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) September 24, 2025
If Republicans maintain control of the House for Trump’s last two years of his second term, it’s difficult to fathom the depths of despair the Democrat party will plunge into.
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