1,400 Narco Messages Are Left by Criminal Groups Across Mexico Each Year

        When we think of criminals, we often imagine
shadowy figures, operating in the dark away from government scrutiny and public
view as they steal, rob, and kill. As many scholars have pointed out, the
Mexican organized crime landscape overturns this idea, as Mexican criminal
groups are obsessed with public communication with the government, civilians,
and other criminal groups.[1] They use
these messages to influence how they are perceived by civilians, threaten, and
coerce the government, and accuse rivals of heinous acts. 

        However, few attempts
have been made to consistently quantify and measure the usage of narco messages
by criminal groups. This article attempts to find out how many narco messages
are left across Mexico each year, based on a review of the few large scale
narco message collections publicly available. I will examine each of these
datasets, explore their definitions and methodology, and attempt to estimate
the number of narco messages left in Mexico each year.

        In the 2000s, physical communications from
criminal groups burst onto the scene. Criminal groups such as the Zetas used
banners hung from bridges in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas to recruit members,
offering them better pay and food.[2] Other criminal groups like La Familia Michoacána used messages to provide explanations
for violent attacks, such as a 2006 banner calling victims of beheading recipients
of “divine justice”.[3]

Zetas narco banner in Nuevo Laredo, 2008.[4]

        A US counter narcotics official interviewed by
Reuters in 2008 said that narco messaging would eventually disappear, saying
“Drug traffickers are not stupid, they know that if they cause chaos, the
military will come. It is not like the old Mexico. They know that too much
attention is bad for business.” [5] However,
that was not the case, as narco messages expanded geographically and
proliferated numerically. Narco message researcher Dr. Philip Luke Johnson
wrote the first narco message appeared in 2004 and by 2008 narco messages have
been found in 28 of Mexico’s 32 states.[6] Another scholar, Dr. Laura Atuesta, found that between 2007 and 2011, the
number of narco messages found in Mexico increased 1,611%.[7]

        These messages take the form of scripted narco
communication videos, filmed executions, and tortures, large printed narco
banners, and most common of all, physical narco messages left on cardboard
posters. There have only been a few studies which have attempted to quantify
the usage of narco messages. This post will not examine the content of the studies,
though they are all interesting and worthwhile reading. For the purposes of
this article, I am just interested in their narco message datasets.

        There are a number of caveats and limitations to this article. Datasets on narco messages are few. Between data sets, definitions are not nailed down firmly and collection methodologies vary slightly. Despite these difficulties, in this article I aim to arrive at a reasonable estimate through examining all known datasets, and inferring logically what I cannot find for certain.

        This article defines narco messages as written
or printed physical communications from criminal groups in Mexico, often
publicly placed. This includes large sheets (narcomantas), cardboard scrawled
messages (narcomensajes), and leaflets (volantes). I aim for a broad, inclusive
definition to engage the totality of physical narco messaging used by criminal
groups.

Spraypainted message on the house of the Municipal treasurer of Coxquihui, Veracruz. Source.

Narco messages found in each
study:

        Here are the results from six datasets on
narco messages I found. All six datasets were collected in a similar manner and
use a comparable definition for what constitutes a narco message. For a more
expanded look at each data set, skip to the bottom.

Dataset 1 – CIDE, Laura Atuesta 

Narco messages without bodies per year:

 2007:
56

2008:
281

2009:
506

2010:
889

2011:
948

Narco
messages adjusted for percentage found with bodies:

2007: 105

2008: 525

2009: 946

2010: 1,662

2011: 1,772

Dataset 2 – Carlos Martin

Narco messages between October 2009 and
October 2010:

1,419

Dataset 3 – Brian J. Phillips and Viridiana
Ríos

Narco messages between 2007 and 2010:

1,800

No
breakdown by year.

Dataset 4 – Philip Luke Johnson

Narco messages between 2006 and 2013:

4,000+

No
breakdown by year.

Dataset 5 – Günther Maihold

Narco messages between June 2007 and October
27, 2008:

2,061

Same rate for 12-month period:

1,455 

Dataset 6 – El Huaso

Narco messages in 2021:

1,114

Quantity

        Between the
years of 2007 and 2010, the number of narco messages sharply increased. The
only outlier was Maihold’s data set, which gathered 1,455 messages in a
12-month period in 2008. Given that
Maihold did not explain how his data was found exactly, as well as being a
little unclear on his definition of a narco message, I have excluded his findings
from the conclusion.

        After 2010,
the number seems to have stabilized at over well over 1,000 narco messages per
year. This number was found in Carlos Martin’s data set, CIDE’s, as well as my
own. It is far more likely for a data set to undercount than overcount, so I have chosen CIDE’s higher numbers for the years 2010 and 2011 over Martins data set.

        As a conservative estimate, between the years of 2012 and 2022, it is
likely that over 1,400 narco messages were left each year for a total of 14,000
narco messages. The only data publicly available for the years prior to 2012 is
CIDE’s and Martin’s data sets. Adjusting for narco messages with bodies, we get
105 in 2007, 525 in 2008, and 946 in 2009, 1,662 in 2010, 1,772 in 2011, for a total of 5,010 narco messages. Adding these to the 14,000 between 2012 and 2022, we get a total of at least 19,010 messages since 2007. 

2007: 105

2008: 525

2009: 946

2010: 1,662

2011: 1,772

2012:
1,400

2013:
1,400

2014:
1,400

2015:
1,400

2016:
1,400

2017:
1,400

2018:
1,400

2019:
1,400

2020:
1,400

2021:
1,400

2022:
1,400

Common themes between datasets

        There is a lack of information for the latter
half of the 2010s and start of the 2020s. Most information we have about narco
messages was collected by the Mexican government and leaked. To my knowledge
there are very few if any researchers currently gathering this information. 

        Phillips and Rios also mention how the Mexican
news media restricted their own coverage of narco messaging and violence after
2011, which may lead to undercount in messaging from 2011 onwards. While this
is true, I think that the independent media, such as Twitter accounts and nota
roja pages have filled the information gap, and the media blackout on messaging
may not be as large of a factor as previously thought.

        All data sets agree on several conclusions regarding
quantity. First, the number of narco messages found in Mexico has increased
overtime. While there are a few scattered examples of narco messaging prior to
2007, it seems that criminal groups began using narco messages on a large scale
in the late 2000s. The number of messages deployed annually exploded in the
following years.

        Further, based on the quantity of messages,
all datasets point to physical narco messages being the primary form of
communication from criminal groups in Mexico. While other methods of
communication are utilized, such as scripted video messages or airdropped
leaflets, no other method of communication comes close to the quantity of
physical narco messages deployed.

Also, all data sets show that messages are used
in most Mexican states.

Reasons for the lack of narco
message data sets

        Part of the reason for the lack of
comprehensive data sets on narco messaging is the general perception of the
limited utility in studying them. I have spoken to researchers who argued that
it is nearly impossible to determine who was really behind a narco message.
Indeed, Maihold argues that police forces have used narco messages to
“self-legitimize the corporations”.

Further, given the quantity of narco messages,
creating a large data set is time and energy intensive, making it infeasible
for many research teams.

        Also, for some studies, finding the exact
number of narco messages left in a year is irrelevant as they focus on
discourse analysis, or how the communications are used. For these, the
researchers randomly select a certain number of messages to study from a larger
data set or choose specific notable communications.

CJNG narco banners in Guanajuato. Source.

The first dataset – Mexican Government leak to CIDE, Laura
Atuesta (2007 – 2010) 

        The first major database was leaked from a
Mexican government database to the Center for Research and Teaching in
Economics (CIDE), a university and think tank in Mexico City. This dataset
contains 2,680 narco messages between 2007 and 2011.

        In ‘Narcomessages as a way to analyse the
evolution of organised crime in Mexico’, Dr. Atuesta borrows a definition of
narco messages from organized crime scholar Viridiana Rios, writing that they
are “billboards that traffickers leave on the streets to clarify why they
assassinated someone, to intimidate other potential victims, identify
themselves or their victims, communicate with citizens around the area, or give
instructions to the investigators who will eventually record the messages,
among other reasons”.[8]

        There is one major caveat – this data set only
includes narco messages that were left next to a body.[9] Therefore, the data set excludes all narco messages that were hung from
bridges, or simply left without a corpse. Based on two other data sets we will
explore later, this excludes about half of narco messages.

        The sixth dataset, which I collected, found
that 54.12% of messages were found next to bodies. This finding aligns with
that of dataset two by Carlos Martin, which found that 53% were found next to
bodies. If we take the average of these two, we can estimate that 53.5% of
narco messages are left next to bodies. Using this figure, we can multiply estimate
the true number of narco messages between 2007 and 2011, as the CIDE dataset
only included messages found next to bodies.

Where Y is narco messages with bodies, and X
is narco messages without bodies.

Y/X = 53.5/100

X=1,772

The amended data is therefore:

2007: 105

2008: 525

2009: 946

2010: 1,662

2011: 1,772

        There are some
caveats. This assumes that the number of messages with bodies next to them
stayed constant throughout the years. Datasets two and six, collected one
decade apart with similar collection methodologies, found a very similar
proportion of messages left to bodies. However, it is possible that criminal
groups did not start leaving bodies at such higher rates until 2010. Beheadings
for example, were not always as common in Mexico as they are now. They became a
criminal fashion and spread across Mexico in the first years of Mexico’s drug
war, increasing from 32 in 2007 up to 493 in 2011, according to Mexico’s Attorney
General’s Office. [10]

Laura H.
Atuesta (2017) Narcomessages as a way to analyse the evolution of organised
crime in Mexico, Global Crime, 18:2, 100-121, DOI:
10.1080/17440572.2016.1248556

The second dataset – Carlos
Martin (2010)

        The next data set is from an academic article
by Carlos Martin titled “Categorization of Narcomessages in Mexico: An
Appraisal of the Attempts to Influence Public Perception and Policy Actions”.
This data set was collected using a vast search through open sources between
October 2009 and October 2010, finding 1,419 narco messages across 31 Mexican
states.

        Martin argues that narco messages are used by
criminal groups in Mexico to “influence public opinion” and can” illuminate the
interests behind the actions of the cartels”. He uses a broad definition,
writing that they “usually appear in the form of cardboard messages left on
executed bodies, banners hung from bridges and traffic lights, or as graffiti
written on walls” but can also include messages written on t-shirts of bodies. [11]

Carlos
Martin (2012) Categorization of Narcomessages in Mexico: An Appraisal of the
Attempts to Influence Public Perception and Policy Actions, Studies in Conflict
& Terrorism, 35:1, 76-93, DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2012.631459

The third dataset – Brian J.
Phillips and Viridiana Ríos (2007 – 2010)

        In ‘Narco-Messages: Competition and Public
Communication by Criminal Groups’, researchers Brian J. Phillips and Viridiana
Ríos examined the circumstances around narco messages, which they define as “narco-messages are texts left by criminal organizations in a public place
to communicate with other criminal groups, the public, or authorities”.[12] They
used a data set of 1,800 narco messages found by open-source searches between
2007 and 2010. They do not specify how many were found each year,
unfortunately.

        Compared to other datasets, their numbers are low.
While spanning the same years as the data used by CIDE, their dataset has 1,800
messages to CIDE’s 2,680. They wrote that “When
a message contained the same text and was displayed in the same municipality
around the same date, we assumed that it could be duplicated coverage.” It
is possible that this also meant they undercounted messages by missing
messaging campaigns where multiple identical messages were deployed, as
criminal groups often do. For example, in the state of Guanajuato, the CJNG
Grupo Elite faction frequently employs message campaigns, leaving large
quantities of the identical banner around the state, as reported by Borderland Beat.

Phillips,
B., & Ríos, V. (2020). Narco-Messages: Competition and Public Communication
by Criminal Groups. Latin American Politics and Society, 62(1), 1-24.
doi:10.1017/lap.2019.43

The fourth dataset – Dr. Philip
Luke Johnson (2007 – 2013)

        Another researcher whose work I have been
following with great interest is Dr. Philip Luke Johnson of Princeton
University. He has collected narco messages on his own for an upcoming paper
and book on the topic. While he has not released his data set yet, he does
reference it on his personal website. Johnson collected his dataset through
manual searches on major Mexican news sites such as Proceso and Noroeste.[13]

        He wrote in 2018 that his database of messages
left between 2006 and 2013 passed 4,000 messages. However, his data set is
unpublished and we do not know how many were left per year.

Luke
Johnson, Philip. “CPW 10/3/18 – Johnson on Narco-Messages and the Legibility of
Violence – Political Science | the Graduate Center, CUNY.” Political Science |
the Graduate Center, CUNY, 3 Oct. 2018,
politicalscience.commons.gc.cuny.edu/2018/10/03/cpw-10-3-18-johnson-on-narco-messages-and-the-legibility-of-violence/.

The fifth dataset – Günther
Maihold (June 2007 – October 27, 2008)

        Günther Maihold wrote in a 2012 article titled
“Criminal communications: The case of narco banners” that between June 2007 and
October 27, 2008, a 17 -month period, he found 2,061 narco messages in Mexico.[14] Dividing
his findings to reach a 12-month number, we get 1,455 narco messages. This
figure is perplexing, as it is much higher than the CIDE dataset for the same
years. Even comparing Maihold’s dataset for a 17-month period (2,061) with CIDE’s
24-month period 337, Maihold’s dataset dwarfs CIDE’s by a factor of six.

        Maihold argues that narcomantas, or narco
banners in English, are “publicity efforts from cartels who place them in
public places – for example, on sidewalks – with the goal of attracting the
attention of civil society and the news media in order to reproduce and
divulge, and by that manner generate an alternative discourse to the
communications of government actors”.

Maihold,
Günther. Las Comunicaciones Criminales: El Caso De Las Narcomantas. : Colectivo
de Análisis de la Seguridad con Democracia, 2012.

https://www.casede.org/PublicacionesCasede/Atlas2012/GUNTHER_MAIHOLD.pdf

The sixth dataset – El Huaso
(2021)

        The final data set is one collected by myself.
This data set includes 1,114 messages left in Mexico between January 1, 2021,
and December 29, 2021. This data set was collected by searching for relevant
keywords in Google news, Twitter, and on several Mexican news websites such as Proceso and Valor por Tamaulipas.

        These narco banners were found in over 300
different municipalities in Mexico, were signed by 249 different criminal
actors, and communicated with everyone from rival drug dealers to the president
himself. In results, my dataset aligns closely with dataset 2 by Carlos Martin.

Works Cited