Macron has stood his ground, however, insisting that “every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through and measured”.
Washington does not seem to mind the war dragging on; earlier this month, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin admitted it had been a boon for the US economy. For the US, the defence of democracy against autocratic forces is an ideological battle it will not back down on. And as CIA director William Burns recently made clear, US support for Ukraine is a show of deterrence for China against taking Taiwan by force.
09:43
Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid
Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid
It is from this perspective that one can perhaps guess at the true intentions behind Macron’s recent comments. If nothing else, his words shattered an atmosphere of political correctness. In raising a controversial scenario, he has pushed his American and European allies to the extreme, shining a light on the deficiency and unviability of Nato’s strategy over the Ukraine war.
China and Switzerland in push for Russia to join Ukraine peace summit
China and Switzerland in push for Russia to join Ukraine peace summit
If so, Macron may have presented Washington with a checkmate. America may have taken for granted its leadership in Nato and its European allies’ submission to its will because of their alleged shared values. It might have realised that defeating the Russians on the battlefield has become an impossibility but that they have to go on with it nevertheless.
The retirement this month of US diplomat Victoria Nuland, a staunch Ukraine supporter, as the undersecretary of state for political affairs, may be the beginning of an end.
02:36
Vladimir Putin deploys troops near Finland border, warns that Russia is ‘ready’ for nuclear war
Vladimir Putin deploys troops near Finland border, warns that Russia is ‘ready’ for nuclear war
A different signal can be read from Macron’s words: that the dragging on of the Ukraine war is not bearable and the European wound has to cease festering; that if Washington cannot do it, it should leave the Europeans themselves to sort it out with the Russians; that eventually Europe must stand up and be counted as an independent geopolitical player, with Russia (and even Britain) returning to the fold.
Only in Europe does the US still enjoy considerable leverage in playing its allies off against Russia. Macron, and those European elites who think like him, appear to be taking action to upend this situation for Europe’s sake.
If they succeed, the world will be buttressed by G3, not G2, and 2024 may well be the year in which Europe rises again in the tapestry of global geopolitical history.
Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics