SINGAPORE — Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi died in office after a helicopter he was on crashed in the mountains near the Azerbaijan border, state media confirmed on Monday (May 20).
Iran is a key player in the Middle East and its politics have often had a ripple effect across the region.
The 63-year-old Raisi, a hardline cleric, was elected president in 2021.
While there has been concern that Raisi’s death might spark political turmoil in Iran and the Middle East, experts told TODAY this is unlikely to play out in the Islamic state.
TODAY takes a closer look at what happened and potential developments.
WHAT HAPPENED?
Raisi, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other high-ranking Iranian officials, were in a helicopter headed towards the Iranian city of Tabriz, where he was scheduled to inaugurate a project at an oil refinery.
While en route, at about 1pm on Sunday (5.30pm Singapore time), the helicopter, a Bell 212 developed by the US in the 1960s, went down after a technical failure.
Search and rescue teams were deployed to scour the area through heavy rain and fog. More than 10 hours later, the charred wreckage of the helicopter was found in a remote, mountainous area near the border with Azerbaijan.
Iran’s former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has since said that the United States had a part to play in the crash, as sanctions imposed by the superpower prevented Iran from purchasing newer aircraft.
Prof Shahram Akbarzadeh, a research professor from Deakin University specialising in Middle East Politics, also noted in responses to queries from TODAY that Iran’s air fleet is very old due to the sanctions.
The sanctions, imposed in 1979, also means Iran is unable to purchase spare parts to maintain its ageing fleet of planes and helicopters, resulting in frequent air accidents.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR IRAN?
Mr Mohammad Mokhber, the first Vice President of Iran, has been appointed acting President until the country heads to the polls on June 28 to elect a new President.
But political experts told TODAY there is unlikely to be any major changes to Iran’s domestic policy.
“This will be an administrative hiccup as the administration figures out their day-to-day functions with the president and foreign minister out of the picture,” said Prof Akbarzadeh.
“It may be administrative chaos, but there will not be a strategic change in domestic and international policy.”
Prof Mehran Kamrava of Georgetown University in Qatar added that Iran’s foreign policy will likely remain the same too.
While the late foreign minister Amir-Adollahian was the architect of Iran’s ‘good neighbors’ and ‘look East’ policies, and an important and effective member of Raisi’s cabinet, it is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who ultimately directs Iran’s foreign policy, said Prof Kamrava.
But the regime may face challenges in getting a vote of confidence from voters come June. The country’s previous election in March this year saw its worst voter turnout since Iran’s founding in 1979.
Out of the country’s 61 million eligible voters, only 41 per cent turned out to the polls.
“The Supreme Leader has been on public record asking citizens to vote because the elections is seen as a sign of legitimacy,” said Prof Akbarzadeh on the previous elections.
“Now asked again to choose another President… the outcome might be another slap in the face for the Islamic regime in terms of voter turnout.”
WHAT IS THE BROADER IMPLICATION ON THE WORLD?
There are two possible scenarios that could play out from the deaths of Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian.
The first scenario, and what experts deem is most likely, is that the crash will be declared an unfortunate accident.
In this scenario, the impact on the country, the Middle Eastern region and the rest of the world is little to none. While Iran will have to deal with its upcoming elections, domestic and foreign policy will not see drastic change, if any at all.
“Any impact on Iran’s relations with Singapore is likely to be minimal, at least in the short-term,” said Prof Kamrava.
“Trade and relations between the two countries are not very extensive, and it is unlikely there will be major changes in their existing relationship.”
The second scenario is that Iran blames Israel for the accident, whether or not that may be true.
The two countries have long butted heads. Most recently, following the Hamas-led attack on Israel on Oct 7 last year, Israel blamed Iran for its support of Hamas.
After Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria, the Islamic Republic retaliated by launching hundreds of missiles and drones in April.
“Given the close ties between Azerbaijan and Israel, and given that the crash occurred near the Iran-Azerbaijan border, it is possible that Tehran may declare that Israel was somehow responsible for the crash,” said Dr Mark N. Katz, professor of government and politics at George Mason Univeristy’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
“If so, then Iran will feel compelled to launch some sort of attack on Israel, and Israel will respond in kind.”
This might cause a “prolonged, inconclusive conflict” with some Middle Eastern states jumping into the fray. Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will likely seek to stay out of the conflict if this happens.
But oil prices might rise, affecting the rest of the world and Singapore.
But like other experts, Prof Akbarzadeh said this second scenario is highly unlikely.
“If by chance, Iranian authorities blame Israel, they would… be effectively declaring war on Israel. I don’t think Iranian authorities would be interested in pursuing that line,” he said.
“There has been no indication that the helicopter crash is due to foul play.”