
Writing your name in the history books can mean different things to different players.
The history books contain a finite honour roll of winners — only 130 women have won a grand slam, and only 54 have raised the trophy at the Australian Open.
Since she turned professional in 2009, Madison Keys has looked to add her name to the list. The American has gone tantalisingly close across her decade and a half long career, finding herself in her second grand slam final a record eight years after her first.
Keys, on the cusp of 30, might be closer than she has ever been before thanks to a rebuilt game and a renewed focus. The history books, and that elite list, are just one win away.
Her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka already has three grand slam titles — including the past two Australian Opens.
Despite the difference in silverware, both Keys and Sabalenka share notable similarities. This year’s Australian Open final shapes as a battle of the heavy hitters, of two of the most powerful players in tennis. Both have devastating forehands and damaging serves.
The last time Sabalenka and Keys met at a grand slam the result was a topsy-turvy classic where either player could have won.
Why an injury is the Keys to success
A year ago, Keys wasn’t close to Australian Open success.
She wasn’t even in Australia. Instead, the Floridian was at home suffering from a shoulder injury. The injury came at what at first seemed like a poor time, having come off a trip to the US Open semifinal at the end of 2023 and qualifying for the WTA Tour Finals.
Instead, it appears to be the rebirth of her career.
On her return to the tour, Keys debuted a new service motion. The American’s serve has long been one of the cornerstones of her game and is one of the fastest on tour. But that motion that caused so much success also may have hurt it going forward.
“I just needed to make some changes for my body — shoulder and hip. It felt like I was able to take some pressure off by making that tweak,” Keys said at the start of this season.
Keys made the call to move from a platform serve — with her legs split apart through the service motion — to a ‘pinpoint’ serve. The pinpoint sees the trail leg move up to the service line before the jump. The motion is designed to reduce stress and preserve momentum.
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The new serve took time to bed down. Keys’s service speeds dropped significantly through last year, slipping 10 per cent on average. Extended training time in the off-season helped the transition.
Keys’s serve looks better than ever, and the speeds have bounced right back. Keys registered the equal second fastest serve of any woman at this Australian Open. It’s as fast as her serve has been this decade as well.
More importantly, she is hitting more aces, winning more first service points, and holding more service games than any season since 2020. It’s this ability to hold service games quickly that puts her opponents under so much pressure.
The American also made other changes to her game. Keys changed her racquet for the first time in around a decade and changed her preferred choice of strings. The shifts were uncomfortable at first, but have improved the consistency in her game.
“I felt like in the past using my equipment, it was always either really good or really bad. I had a really hard time on days where I wasn’t really feeling it,” Keys said last week.
That slight improvement in consistency is something that has helped Keys’s charge to the final. She plays a naturally high risk, high reward style of game. The extreme power of her forehand — as fast as any man or woman on tour at times — is delivered in a relatively flat manner.
That trade off increases the margin of error compared with players who utilise more topspin (such as Iga Świątek) but can produce blistering results when firing.
Through the Australian Open, Keys has hit more winners than her opponent in every game, but also more unforced errors in all matches bar one. It means that matches are often decided on her racquet, and her opponents are sometimes relegated to a supporting role.
By contrast, her two-handed backhand game is technically sound but far less risky. That’s the side that opponents try to attack to get the edge. Given Sabalenka’s own strengths, that might be where the match is decided.
If Keys is to prevail, it will likely be down to how her power game can set the tone of the match.
Sabalenka just powers through
Keys has waited almost a decade for a second chance at winning a grand slam final. Sabalenka’s wait for another slam is much shorter, coming off the back of last year’s US Open success.
Sabalenka has made the finals of the past five hard court grand slams, winning three of them so far. She is solidifying her case as the best hardcourt player in the current era.
And she is looking to join a very select group — Margaret Court, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf, Monica Seles and Martina Hingis — of players to win three straight Australian Opens in the Open era.
As a result, there hasn’t been a massive reinvention to get to the top. Instead, Sabalenka has seen off the best everyone else has to offer.
The Sabalenka formula is relatively easy to sight by now. Her game is underwritten by the strength of her service game. Her ability to hold her serve puts any opponent under pressure.
If points extend to any length, Sabalenka will work to end them with power on both sides of her body.
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Like Keys, Sabalenka has easy power on her forehand side. Data from recent US and French Opens show that Sabalenka hits her forehand faster than top men’s players like Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and men’s world number one Jannik Sinner.
Sabalenka’s topspin forehand also has a little more spin imparted, making it easier to control and keep in due to her positioning and racquet grip.
Unlike Keys, Sabalenka also has a weapon on her backhand side. While it’s not quite as strong as her forehand, the set two handed backhand can catch opponents by surprise.
At times, Sabalenka can be prone to hitting errors — much like her opponent in the final. Often matches will be decided on her side, regardless of the opponent.
She’s also suffered from the yips in the past, something she’s largely controlled in the past three seasons.
But when Sabalenka can control her weapons, she can leave her opponent with no viable path to victory. That’s how she’s won two Australian Opens so far, and how she might add a third to the mix.
The tale of the tape
Sabalenka and Keys have faced off five times in the past, with Sabalenka winning four of those encounters. The American’s one victory in the match-up came on grass three and a half years ago in three tight sets, with the Belarusian winning all three hard court encounters.
That undersells how close some of their previous encounters have been — in particular their match up at the 2023 US Open. That epic stretched nearly three hours, with Keys winning more games across the match but losing two tie-breakers and the match.
Due to their power heavy styles, both players have the ability to hit the other off the court. Their previous encounters have seen short, explosive points and attempts at wild shot making.
Neither player will leave the court, wondering what could have been.
Expect power and fury, with more than a chance of something historic to come.
- ABC Sport will be live blogging the Australian Open women’s final from 5:30pm (AEDT) and you can listen to the match via the ABC Listen app
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