My RedState colleague has reported on the upcoming Trumpapalooza September Midterm Convention and its focus on socialism:
Axios revealed that the GOP will be laser focused on one thing: the destruction wrought by socialism. Per Axios, Republicans will be making “a sweeping, made-for-prime-time case that Democrats have become captive to their activist left.” Calling the convention a “socialism telethon,” the outlet revealed that “Republicans will make progressive politicians and activists recurring characters throughout the Sept. 9-10 convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.” And they’ve got plenty of material to work with, apparently, after “GOP operatives spent months compiling footage of Democratic figures — including left-wing commentator Hasan Piker and Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico — that they’ll use throughout the convention to paint Democrats as outside the mainstream.”
Advertisement
In other words, the convention will be one giant negative attack ad focused on the DSA and the Democrats. This is something new, as the earlier Democrat midterm conventions did not focus on the other party and only exposed Democrat craziness and disunity.
As every experienced political observer will tell you, negative ads are far more effective than positive ads.
In the House of Representatives, the GOP has a 218-plus-one (nominal independent) majority, versus 212 Democrats, with four vacancies. Holding the majority will be tough. Assuming the GOP holds one vacant seat, the party can only afford to lose a net two seats. Gaining seats would be harder; only twice in recent times has the president’s party picked up seats in a midterm election.
President Trump’s Real Clear Politics approval average is down to 39.3 percent, with 58.4 percent disapproving. This is bad; like the numbers President George W. Bush faced in 2006. The generic has also gotten much worse – now the Democrats have a 7-point, 48.6 percent to 41.6 percent, margin. This is “blue wave” territory.
There are important caveats, however. Since I was a youngster, it has been well-known that the Democrats tended to drift higher in the polls during the summer, before settling down during the fall. It is called the “summer response bias.” It was theorized that Republican voters were too busy on vacation, etc., to answer the phone/email/etc. for a pollster.
Advertisement
Making things worse today is the tendency of pollsters to oversample white, highly educated leftists. The Democrat Senate primary race in Michigan clearly demonstrated this by showing the radical Muslim Bernie Bro far ahead of his more moderate opponent, only for him to win by just 1 percent with a plurality of the vote.
Another caveat is that the GOP continues to benefit from minimal exposure in the House boom-and-bust cycle. In the House, the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties. In 2018, the Democrats won 41 seats in the House, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022. The Republicans won 9 seats to gain control in 2022, only to lose two seats in the 2024 elections. Further, the GOP solidified itself with a 2026 gerrymandering edge, which probably means that the Democrats need to maintain a generic lead of 4.9 percent just to have a chance to win the majority. Right now, the GOP may have an absolute floor at 203 seats, with another 6 seats leaning their way.
Many political observers continue to be laser-focused on the price of gasoline and the “affordability” issue, and assume it will cause great harm to the GOP. This remains to be seen. It did little to damage Democrats in 2022, when inflation was much higher. And voters also seem to understand that higher prices were originally ignited by the big-spending Biden administration.
Advertisement
It’s important to remember that like John Paul Jones, the GOP has not yet begun to fight. Traditionally, the campaign doesn’t get going full speed until after Labor Day, especially for the GOP. Unlike the Democrats, the GOP doesn’t have the MSM pushing propaganda for it endlessly with “earned media”, so the Republicans must use their own cash – “paid media” – to make their own case. This time around, the Republicans have a record amount of money to play with. And they have a lot of “wedge” issues to hit the Democrats on, including socialism, impeachment, trans persons, illegal aliens, etc.
So, “We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”
Time for another check-in for some of the more competitive House districts:
- Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards was forced to abandon his reelection after the House Ethics Committee recommended censuring him over his treatment of two young female staffers. This once safe race for the GOP is now more marginal, although the Republican nominee should still be favored.
- Republican Rep. Max Miller has seen his numbers plunge after his former wife and her father, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, denounced him for his temperament and his alleged abuse of his ex-wife. Miller is staying in the race, but now maybe the underdog.
- Democrat and former Democratic Socialist of America (DSA) member Will Lawrence won a plurality of the vote in a battleground Michigan district to oppose Republican freshman Rep. Tom Barrett. Like in the Michigan Senate primary, this result is an “own goal” by the Democrats, as Lawrence is a much weaker candidate to win the district than either of his primary opponents.
Advertisement
Editor’s Note: Every single day, here at RedState, we will stand up and FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT against the radical Left and deliver the conservative reporting our readers deserve.
Help us continue to tell the truth about the Trump administration and its successes. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.