CIS’s own report gives the July estimate a ±1.038 million margin of error, while Census warns the survey shift can reflect nonresponse and statistical controls.
The Trump White House is selling a survey estimate as a settled demographic fact.
The official Rapid Response 47 account claimed the foreign-born population fell 2.9 million from January 2025 to July 2026 and declared net migration negative for the first time since the 1930s.
But the graphic came from the Center for Immigration Studies, not a Census population-count release. CIS compared two monthly Current Population Survey estimates: 53.3 million and 50.5 million.
CIS itself gives its July figure a ±1.038 million 90% margin of error. Its endpoint ranges put the estimated decline as low as 763,000.
“While the change in the foreign-born population in a survey over time can imply emigration, it can also reflect survey non-response, coverage error or the impact of population controls.” — U.S. Census Bureau
The CPS samples roughly 60,000 households each month. Census historically relies on the much larger American Community Survey for foreign-born population estimates.
A St. Louis Fed analysis found participation among non-naturalized immigrants fell 16.6% in 2025, far faster than among native-born respondents. Its authors concluded the CPS decline likely overstated actual migration losses.
Immigration plainly slowed. Census still estimated 1.3 million net international migrants through June 2025 and projected 321,000 through June 2026. Brookings found negative migration plausible, but in a far smaller, uncertain range.
The White House post turned a survey estimate into a fact it cannot prove.