Ukrainian service members fire an M777 howitzer at a frontline in Donetsk, Ukraine, on 23 November. Photograph: RFE/RL/Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures: The State of Play in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine seems permanent. Neither side appears capable of destroying the opposing force or articulating what it would take to reach a peace agreement. The Russians are speaking to Belarus, India and anyone else they might find, but no one can help enough on the battlefield or in the munitions factory to turn the tide. The Ukrainians are speaking to the United States, NATO and anyone else who will listen so that they will continue to receive weapons – perhaps even some new ones. But Ukraine hasn’t broken Russia yet, concerned as it is with preventing the collapse of the country, and doing so may prove difficult. On the battlefield, there is movement on both sides, but movement doesn’t carry with it the taste of victory. When, then, do wars end if the leadership will not concede?
History shows there are several answers to that question.
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WNU Editor: This is a war of attrition, and it is going to go on for a long time. When it comes to manpower, equipment, and firepower, the odds do not favor Ukraine.