Aryna Sabalenka was always expected to make the women’s final. 

The two-time defending Australian Open champion and world number one came into the tournament a favourite to go one better and make it a three-peat.

If the 26-year-old from Belarus is to win, she will become the first player since Martina Hingis from 1997-99 to achieve the feat. 

The only other women to win three straight Australian Open women’s singles titles are Margaret Court (1969-1971), Evonne Goolagong Cawley (1974-1976), Steffi Graf (1988-1990) and Monica Seles (1991-1993).

It’s her chance to sit in the room with these greats of the sport. 

As while she regularly features in grand slam semifinals across Wimbledon, the French Open and the US Open, and won the latter in 2024, she hasn’t had the same success anywhere else as she’s had at Melbourne Park.

Standing in her way, however, is 29-year-old Madison Keys, the surprise packet in this year’s final who threatens to be the feel-good story of the tournament.

Madison Keys plays a forehand at the Australian Open.

Madison Keys stunned Iga Swiatek in the semifinal. (AP: Ng Han Guan)

Keys was pegged as a tennis prodigy when she was a teen but only made one previous grand slam final, the US Open in 2017, which she lost to countrywoman Sloane Stephens.

The 19th seed this Australian Open, Keys has always been up and around top rankings — she’s currently world number 14 and has nine WTA Tour titles — but hasn’t properly threatened to break through in a grand slam since.

Although she got close in 2023 when she faced Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open semifinals, which she lost in three sets.

While Keys will go into the final as the underdog, she’s already proved she can win with that status at this Australian Open.

To book her spot in the final, she stunned world number two Iga Swiatek, who was heavily favoured to meet Sabalenka in the final and contend for a sixth grand slam title.

Against the Polish star, Keys saved a match point in the final set to stay in the match and eventually defeat Swiatek in a tie-break 10-8. Keys never led in the tiebreaker until the second-last point. 

Even she was surprised at the final score.

Swiatek had not dropped a set in her previous five matches this campaign and conceded only seven games in her previous four wins.

“I feel like I blacked out at some point,” said Keys, who wrote “Oh my god” on the camera lens.

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Both Keys and Sabalenka are known for fast serves, powerful forehands and aggressive playing styles. While Keys is the older of the two, she said Sabalenka can often be a reference point for how she wants to play.

“She plays such fearless tennis,” Keys said of Sabalenka.

“She has the ability to play so well that way … I think a lot of people, no matter what, even if it was a tight point, you kind of expect them to play a little bit more conservative or back down a little bit, and you know she’s not going to do that.

“I think not only is that impressive on her side, but I think it puts a little bit more pressure on her opponents where you know you’re always going to have to try to win the point because she’s never going to just play passive and give you an easy point.”

The last time they met was the China Open in October, where Sabalenka won 6-4, 6-3 in the round of 16. 

Aryna Sabalenka celebrates a point against Paula Badosa

Aryna Sabalenka defeated her good friend Paula Badosa to book her spot in her third consecutive Aus Open final. (Hannah Peters: Getty Images)

Yet what sticks out more in Keys’ mind is the 2023 US Open semifinal meeting, which was incredibly, heartbreakingly, close. 

Sabalenka sent Keys home 0-6, 7-6 (7-1), 7-6 (10-5), yet said it was one match where her opponent matched her aggression wise.

“I was under so much pressure. It felt like she was just going for her shots, and everything was going in. She was just crushing it,” Sabalenka said.

“I think at some moments she was just, like, start questioning herself. I saw that and I felt like, OK, now is the moment to make sure that you put as many balls back as you can … she played incredible, aggressive tennis in that semis.”

dan