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The targeting of a go-fast boat off the coast of Venezuela on September 2 heralded a quantum shift in the US war on drugs from South America. But who are the players, and what impact will the killing of 11 alleged drug traffickers have?
This article is based on a discussion between InSight Crime’s Managing Editor Deborah Bonello and Co-Director Jeremy McDermott. You can watch the video here.
Details on the vessel that was destroyed in an apparent missile strike are still sketchy.
Here is what can be gleaned so far from different sources in Venezuela, the video released by the United States, and US statements:
- The vessel was a 12-meter-long speedboat with four outboard motors. This is on the large side for a go-fast board and could have carried a large payload of drugs.
- Of the 11 people believed to have been on board, most were from the coastal town of San Juan de Unare, in Sucre state, which sits opposite the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. This is a town known for smuggling and is about 180 kilometers from Trinidad and Tobago, where the boat was believed to be heading.
- President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the crew had been “positively identified [as] Tren de Aragua narcoterrorists….TDA is a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex trafficking, and acts of violence and terror across the United States and Western Hemisphere. The strike occurred while the terrorists were at sea in international waters transporting illegal narcotics, heading to the United States.”
- During a September 2 press conference, President Trump stated that Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is “one of the largest narcotics traffickers in the world.”
- At a press conference in Mexico City the day after the strike, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated: “Instead of interdicting it, on the president’s orders, we blew it up. And it will happen again.” This seems to indicate a change in the US counternarcotics strategy.
What can we take away from this?
1. Go-fasts that cover long distances usually only have a crew of 2/3 people, maybe four if there is a fear of piracy and armed protection needs to be beefed up. So, this vessel was likely not bound for the United States, although if it was carrying drugs, this could have been the first leg of a much longer journey. With 11 people on board, there could have been a human smuggling element as well. You do not need 11 people on board a single vessel to smuggle drugs, even for a very big consignment.
2. Evidence suggests this boat was headed to Trinidad and Tobago, not a usual stop-off point for drugs bound for the United States. Go-fasts carrying drugs for the United States usually leave from the northern coast of Colombia or Venezuela and head towards the Dominican Republic. There are routes that hopscotch across Caribbean islands, but these drug loads are often bound for Europe, taking advantage of the European overseas territories, like the French islands (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Martin or Saint Barthémy), the Dutch islands (Aruba, Curaçao, Bonaire, Sint Maarten, Saba and Sint Eustatius) or the British territories (Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Monserrat, Turks and Caicos). Drugs can be unloaded on these islands, then smuggled using the plentiful tourist flights, air cargo, containers, or yachts that regularly cross the Atlantic for Europe.
3. Were the crew all members of Tren de Aragua? This seems unlikely. While there was an attempt by Tren de Aragua several years ago to set up an outpost in the Venezuelan state of Sucre, it was unsuccessful, and they were pushed out by local gangs that have long controlled smuggling routes into the Eastern Caribbean. We have found no evidence to date that Tren de Aragua is involved in transnational drug trafficking. Its criminal portfolio is built around human smuggling and trafficking, extortion, and some micro-trafficking — that is, the retail sale of drugs in neighborhoods where they have a strong presence. There may be cases where Tren de Aragua members have worked as subcontracted labor for drug trafficking organizations, but there are few concrete examples of this.
SEE ALSO: Tren de Aragua: Fact vs. Fiction
4. Is Maduro “one of the largest narcotics traffickers in the world”? This allegation is built around a 2020 indictment against Maduro and Diosdado Cabello, the Venezuelan regime’s number two, for being “leaders and managers of the Cártel de Los Soles, or ‘Cartel of the Suns’.” According to InSight Crime’s research, the Cartel of the Suns is not a vertically integrated drug trafficking organization but rather a system of hybrid criminal governance in which the current regime has created alliances with criminal actors to gain access to criminal rents needed to keep itself afloat and reward loyalists. The Maduro system regulates these criminal economies, including the cocaine trade. It is a stretch to categorize Maduro as one of the largest drug traffickers in the world, but he does preside over a regime of state-embedded drug trafficking.
5. Is this new approach and naval deployment going to have any lasting effect on the drug trade from Venezuela or elsewhere? Certainly, drug traffickers are going to think twice before dispatching any go-fast launches from the Venezuelan coast while the US armada is there. The Maduro regime has also responded to the United States’ action by conducting its own counter-narcotics operation in the country. This will likely cause a freeze in much of the drug trade through Venezuela, even that operating with the permission of the Maduro regime. However, this will not stop the flow of cocaine, just divert it to different departure points and routes. We are likely to see cocaine still moving through southern Venezuela towards Guyana, Suriname, and northern Brazil, although these departure points tend to be directed more towards Europe than the United States. Some of the cocaine stored in Colombia and slated to move through Venezuela may now be moved directly to Colombia’s Caribbean coast and up through Central America on its way to the United States or be pushed along the Pacific Ocean routes. At best, the United States’ action has interrupted some well-established drug smuggling routes but achieved little more — for now.