After ‘really shocking’ LDP losses in Japan’s special elections, can Fumio Kishida survive as PM?

“He is in a very tough situation, and he is going to find it difficult to hang on,” said Hiromi Murakami, a political-science professor at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.

“The election result in Shimane prefecture was really shocking because that is meant to be one of the LDP’s heartlands,” she told This Week In Asia. “If the party cannot keep those sorts of seats, then you have to ask how he is going to turn this around.”

However, the party was more confident about retaining Shimane’s No. 1 district, a long-standing conservative bastion, where the special election was triggered by the death of Hiroyuki Hosoda, the former speaker of the lower house.

01:47

Japanese PM Kishida orders investigation into Unification Church as his approval ratings plummet

Japanese PM Kishida orders investigation into Unification Church as his approval ratings plummet

With the ruling party deeply unpopular, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan took advantage and won all three seats. It then immediately demanded that the LDP call a general election on the grounds that it is impossible for it to bring about the political reforms that the nation requires.

Even more worrying for Kishida are the exit polls conducted by the Jiji Press news agency indicating 40 per cent of voters want him to step down immediately.

“It’s pretty clear that the public is very angry about these scandals, but also Kishida’s inability to decisively solve the party’s problems,” Murakami said, pointing out that while there had been some resignations from the party, other politicians caught up in the scandal had not been held accountable.

“Kishida’s public support rate is around 30 per cent now, and he is just being dragged down by everything that is happening, so it is up to him to do something if he wants to turn it around,” she said.

Kishida does not have to call a general election until next year, but he will have to navigate the LDP presidency vote in the autumn. Potential challengers are currently keeping a low profile as they do not wish to be associated with the problems plaguing the party but, as September nears, they are likely to become increasingly visible.

Kishida is certainly in deep trouble, but a challenge in September is by no means inevitable, according to Toshimitsu Shigemura, a politics professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

“I think it’s possible that he may survive because I believe he wants to remain in power but, more importantly, I do not believe that anyone else in the party wants the position at the moment,” he said.

“Things are so bad with the party that whoever comes in next will have a difficult time fixing the problems … Kishida’s best hope is that he is able to pull a political surprise – a rabbit out of the hat, if you like – that is widely supported,” he added.

“If that is not possible, then he has to hope that in six months’ time people have mostly forgotten about all the scandals.”

Kishida among most unpopular Japanese prime ministers ever, polls show

Another tactic he may also attempt is forming a political alliance with Nippon Ishin No Kai, a conservative party from Osaka that has gained increasing political influence lately. However, this move would likely antagonise the LDP’s current electoral partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito, and could trigger a rift within that alliance.

Yet the LDP looks likely to cling onto power regardless, Shigemura said, as even if it loses 50 seats in the next general election, a firm alliance with either Komeito or Ishin No Kai would almost certainly be enough for it to retain control.