Last week a judge in Ecuador sentenced five people convicted in the high-profile 2023 murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, but there is still no clarity as to who ordered the killing and why.

On July 12, a court in Pichincha handed alleged Lobos faction leader Carlos Edwin Angulo, alias “Invisible,” a 34-year prison sentence for arranging the murder from his jail cell. Laura Dayanara Castillo, the co-author in charge of financing and coordinating the assassination, received the same amount of jail time, while three other accomplices got 12 years.

“With respect to the sentence handed down to the perpetrators […] we believe that it is the least that the justice system in Ecuador can do for a man like Fernando who gave his life for the country,” Villavicencio’s daughters wrote in a statement released on X, formerly Twitter. 

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Villavicencio, an investigative journalist-turned-presidential candidate, was gunned down in broad daylight at a campaign event in August 2023. Police subsequently killed the shooter, an 18-year-old Colombian from a poor neighborhood in the southwestern city of Cali, at the scene. Authorities later found messages on his phone that led to the arrest of 13 others linked to the murder. 

In an alarming twist two months later, six Colombians and an Ecuadorean jailed in connection with Villavicencio’s assassination were murdered in prison, casting doubt on Ecuador’s capacity to deliver justice in one of the country’s highest profile cases.

InSight Crime Analysis

Despite convicting several of those responsible for a political murder that made headlines across the world, revealing just how dire Ecuador’s security situation had become, the state appears to have fallen short in exposing the authors and motives for the assassination. 

The investigation into Villavicencio’s murder faced a myriad of setbacks from the onset. Not only were seven key witnesses murdered in prison, but state institutions, especially Ecuador’s National Police, faced criticism for not cooperating with a congressional investigation into his murder. 

Moreover, the intellectual authors remains a mystery. There was a long list of criminals with motives to kill Villavicencio. Speculation initially centered around José Adolfo Macías, alias “Fito,” the leader of the most powerful Ecuadorean gang, the Choneros, and whom Villavicencio had investigated. But a video released shortly after the murder showed several masked gunmen allegedly representing the Lobos, the Choneros’ main criminal rival, claiming responsibility. 

But Angulo, the Lobos leader convicted of ordering the murder, repeatedly denied having any involvement in the crime throughout the trial. In fact, four of the five accused refused to answer any of the prosecutor’s questions at all, claiming they knew nothing about what happened the day Villavicencio was killed. The fifth refused to speak. 

“I am a scapegoat,” Angulo reportedly told the court. 

Regardless of whether or not the Lobos carried out the assassination, Villavicencio’s family and others close to him believe the order came from higher up. Christian Zurita, a friend of Villavicencio who replaced him as candidate after the murder, has accused Pablo Muentes, a former legislator for Ecuador’s Christian Social Party, of having the clearest motive, citing chats released as part of a corruption investigation.

Muentes has dismissed that investigation as a farce. No criminal charges have been filed against him in relation to the Villavicencio case. 

Villavicencio’s family also believes state actors may have been behind the murder.

“We won’t forget the intellectual authors, accomplices, and omissions of the state. If we allow impunity, no one in Ecuador will be safe,” one of Villavicencio’s daughters said after the conviction.

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Despite the many unanswered questions surrounding Villavicencio’s murder, it had a clear and immediate effect on the approach Ecuador took to combating organized crime. 

The rhetoric around security policy in Ecuador quickly changed following the assassination. Villavicencio’s fellow presidential candidates, especially newcomer and eventual winner, Daniel Noboa, pivoted from platforms focused on addressing insecurity through social programs to a pro-militarization stance. 

“We have to use an iron fist if we want to save Ecuador from this insecurity,” Noboa wrote on X after the suspects in Villavicencio’s murder were found killed. 

After becoming president in November 2023, Noboa declared war on 22 organized crime groups, which he re-classified as “terrorist organizations.” His hard-line militarization was met with international and domestic support and saw early success in the form of drug seizures and a drop in homicide rates.

Since then, security forces have increasingly faced accusations of torture and other human rights abuses. And rising violence in key cities has renewed calls for Noboa to present a more sustainable, long-term strategy to dealing with organized crime.

Featured image: Fernando Villavicencio’s family and supporters demonstrate outside the courthouse. Credit: CNN Español