For a very long time, one of the best responses to the question “what makes a good swimming team” was, “are they American?” — and for good reason.
Team USA has topped the medal table in the pool in nine of the past 10 Olympic Games and in all but three of the 19 Olympics since WWII.
In one of those three Olympics — the boycotted Moscow Games of 1980 — the US didn’t even send a team which, given America’s men won every single event bar one at the 1976 Games in Montreal — 11 of the 12 in world record time — to win 27 out of a total of 39 medals, was disappointing.
Only Scottish great David Wilkie broke the American hegemony in Montreal by winning the 200m breaststroke.
Needless to say, the USA is always incredibly strong.
And all the indications from this year’s trials, held inside the Indianapolis Colt’s NFL team’s stadium, is that Paris will be no different.
The stage has well and truly been set for a battle extraordinaire at the Paris La Défence Arena.
The Americans may have watched the rapid times being swum at the Australian Trials in Brisbane — particularly from the women — the week before their own trials began with a mixture of fascination and impending doom.
To witness Ariarne Titmus swimming the second fastest 400m freestyle time in history, before crashing through the pre-existing 200m mark in a devastating display of power and poise was ominous enough — not least that she did so ahead of St Peters Western teammate Mollie O’Callaghan, whose own swim was also under the previous world record.
They would have also looked at Kaylee McKeown with increasing concern as the 22-year-old Queenslander flirted with three world records in as many events, coming close enough to have the record keepers taking the lid off their pens before ultimately falling just short.
The gauntlet had been thrown down.
And some of America’s best picked it up and threw it right back.
Records fall in Indianapolis
Records fell in and out the pool at the NFL stadium — the largest venue to ever hold the US trials.
A record 20,689 fans flocked through the gates on the first night to enjoy the spectacle of swimming in such a cavernous venue, a record that got pushed up to 22,209.
For the record, Swimming Australia said more than 16,700 fans came through the gates in the admittedly (much) smaller Brisbane Aquatic Centre over 12 sessions of racing in Queensland.
Overall, more than 285,000 spectators witnessed the US competition, the most to ever attend a trials event.
And those masses of fans were treated to some sumptuous swimming.
Gretchen Walsh broke the 100m butterfly world record on night one in the semifinals, before qualifying by winning the final the following night.
Regan Smith, meanwhile, backed up an American record in the semifinals by smashing McKeown’s world record by 0.2 seconds in the final.
Michael Phelps (with a prompt from NBC) rekindles war of words with Australia
Just to add to the lengthy history between the two nations in the pool, the USA dug up some old comments from Cate Campbell to stoke the fire.
At the 2023 World Championships, Campbell said “it is just so much sweeter beating America” and that not hearing the Star Spangled Banner made her incredibly happy.
She even took aim at the USA’s “infernal cowbell” and “U-S-A” chant, although other members of the team did backtrack and say not everyone felt like that on the Australian team.
Loading Twitter content
After being shown her comments for the first time during NBC’s coverage of the USA trials, Phelps, arguably the greatest swimmer of all time, said: “I appreciate your comments, Cate,” with a wry smile.
“If somebody said that to me, I would lose it,” he added.
“I would literally make them eat every word they just said about me. Because people have done it — Chad Le Clos, [Ian] Thorpe, you guys have all talked shit about me. And I had the last laugh.
“So for the Americans, if you see what I just saw … I would watch that thing every single day to give me that little extra bit of just mmph.
“The good news is that the Olympics will be here shortly, and we’ll be able to see what the results are.”
Campbell later said she meant no offence, and told Channel 9 as much in a far more lighthearted manner this week.
“It is on, but it is always on,” Campbell said.
“It’s a little bit of a David vs Goliath story. We’re up against a country of 350 million people, there’s 27 million people in Australia, so it is so satisfying when we get up over the big dogs.
“Australia loves being the underdog, we thrive on that, maybe the Americans thrive on the fire in their belly?”
The USA won 11 gold medals to Australia’s nine in Tokyo, extending their run of victories over Australia and, although both teams might struggle to win that many again in Paris, both teams remain incredibly strong.
Here’s how the two squads match up.
Arnie vs the legend
Easily the biggest and most storied rivalry in women’s swimming will get another chapter written in Paris, with Katie Ledecky booking her spot in two head-to-head events against Ariarne Titmus, the 400m and 800m freestyle.
In the 400m free, the 27-year-old, seven-time Olympic gold medallist swam 3:58.35, the 14th-fastest in history.
However, that was substantially slower than what Titmus managed on an electrifying first night in Brisbane.
The American did flirt with world record pace for the first three lengths, but markedly dropped off over the remaining distance.
Ledecky also qualified comfortably in the 800m free, which she hopes to win a record fourth Games in a row.
She is currently one of only four swimmers to win three consecutive Olympic titles in the same event.
Ledecky has recorded the 29 fastest times in history in the event.
The American phenom also qualified in the 1,500m free, looking to defend the title she won in Tokyo. She is odds-on to do so.
Australia’s own 200m free battle
Despite winning the event at US Trials, Ledecky will not swim the 200m free in Paris.
That leaves Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan as the two fastest women in the world this year, both over a second clear of third-fastest, Canadian Summer McIntosh.
The times — again, on paper — suggest this could be an event where Australia can go 1-2.
It’s not unheard of for swimmers from the same country winning gold and silver in an event — it happened three times in Tokyo, including in the men’s 200m freestyle with Great Britain’s Thomas Dean and Duncan Scott.
The last time it happened in the women’s events at a Games was when Liu Zige and Jiau Liuyang did so for China in Beijing in the 200m butterfly.
No Australian pair has claimed the top two medals in the same event at a Games since Ian Thorpe and Grant Hackett did so in the 400m free in Athens.
Emma McKeon will have to fly to win the 100m
Emma McKeon, the most decorated athlete at the last Olympics — the first time that’s accolade has gone to a female swimmer — is only swimming one individual event at this year’s Games.
It is the race she won bronze in last time out, the 100m butterfly — and she’s going to have to swim rapidly in that if she wants to win another medal.
Gretchen Walsh, a 21-year-old from Nashville who missed out on Tokyo, crushed Swedish veteran Sarah Sjöström‘s eight-year-old world record in the 100m fly to underline her status as favourite for gold in Paris.
Walsh swam 55:31 in the semifinal of the competition, much to her surprise.
“I didn’t think I was going to do it tonight,” Walsh said. “I just knew I wanted to go a fast time and now here I am — a world-record holder.”
Kaylee McKeown record-less in the 100m back
Kaylee McKeown was unhappy with finishing fractions of a second outside her own 100m backstroke world record in night two of the trials in Brisbane.
Perhaps she knew something we didn’t.
“It was part of the plan,” Smith said after reclaiming the record she first held in 2019.
Smith had, just a day earlier, proven herself as versatile as anyone in the world, swimming a rapid 55.62 in the 100m fly only to finish third and outside of consideration.
McKeown may have lost her 100m record, but Smith could not back it up in the 200m back, swimming a time almost two seconds slower than the Australian managed in Brisbane, admitting she “ran out of gas” trying to chase McKeown’s 2:03.14 benchmark.
Smith will be busy in Paris though — she won the 200m butterfly to qualify in that event as well.
The men’s distance events up for grabs
This is another area where the men could do something special — and America could lose out on two medals they won in Tokyo.
In the 400m, Elijah Winnington and Sam Short both recorded impressive times in Brisbane, despite Short being horribly sick from a stomach virus.
In fact, they were miles ahead of anything the USA could provide — if everyone swims to form in Paris there may not even be an American capable of making the final — meaning their threats will come from elsewhere.
German 22-year-old Lukas Märtens has swum two of the four fastest times in the world this year, with South Korea’s Woomin Kim not far behind.
It will be a similar story in the 800m and 1,500m — both won by America’s Robert Finke in Tokyo — although world champion Daniel Wiffen of Ireland is the man to beat so far in both those events.
Wiffen, racing for Northern Ireland, was beaten by Short in the 1,500m final of the Commonwealth Games but has improved no end since 2022.
The fast men go head-to-head
In the 50m freestyle, Cameron McEvoy is still the man to beat.
Caeleb Dressel, though, is ready to roll, swimming his fastest time since 2022 to book his spot in the one-length sprint.
He recorded a 21.41, the sixth-fastest time in the world this year behind McEvoy’s 21.43 at the Trials in Brisbane and his 21.13 and 21.23 at the Doha World Championships.
The only other swimmers to go faster than Dressell this year are Vladyslav Bukhov (Ukraine — 21.38) and Ben Proud (GBR — 21.25).
Additionally, France’s Florent Manaudou should not be discounted as a threat. The silver medallist from Tokyo — France’s only medal winner in the pool last time around — will be primed for another assault on the crown as the world’s fastest swimmer.
In the 100m free, Romania’s David Popovici swam the third-fastest 100 metres freestyle of all time with a 46.88 at the European Championships, putting pressure on Australia’s fastest qualifier Kyle Chalmers (47.75), while Chris Guiliano (47.38) and Jack Alexy (47.47) edged out Dressel to qualify for the USA.
Dressell will also race the 100m butterfly, where he will come up against Matthew Temple.
Rounding up the relay prospects
One relay stands out as being something of a sure thing.
In the 4x200m, Australia comes in as heavy, heavy favourite — going on trials times alone the Australians should win this race by as much as seven or eight seconds, with Titmus and O’Callaghan both proving themselves capable of swimming 1.52’s, and Lani Pallister and Bri Throssell both backing up to swim sub-1.56 times in Brisbane.
By contrast, only Ledecky swam sub-1.56 in Indianapolis, while America’s other qualified relay swimmers — Clare Weinstein, Paige Madden and Erin Gemmell — finished way back.
That’s not to say America won’t still be capable of springing a surprise.
After all, Madden said she’d rather swim a relay than an individual event, saying “relays for Team USA are everything”.
The 4×100 will be much, much closer, with each nation’s top four swimming comparable times at trials, although Australia does, on paper, have the edge by about 0.75 seconds.
The medley relays won’t be quite so easy, with breaststroke a real issue with America banking on a strong swim from Lilly King.
That same issue will rear its head in the mixed medley relay as well.
Opinion and tactics are still mixed on the best makeup of a team, with only the breaststroke being seemingly fixed as being best to be swum by a male swimmer.
In that case, Australia is better served there, but that discounts the Adam Peaty factor.
If the Englishman is seemingly back to something approaching his best, that means the Brits have an astronomical advantage in that leg — there is nobody alive who has swum within 0.81 seconds of his best.
On the men’s side, the 4x200m relay will benefit from a strong cohort that is more than a match for whatever America can throw at them, but again it’s the Brits that provide the sternest test on paper, with their brilliant quartet of Matt Richards, Duncan Scott, Tom Dean and James Guy back after winning gold in Tokyo.
Max Giuliani (1:45.83), Thomas Neill (1:46.02), Elijah Winnington (1:46.08) and Kai Taylor (1:46.26) can and will go faster in Paris — and they’ll need to.
All four of Britain’s team recorded faster times in that one race at the London Aquatics Centre than Australia’s fastest, Giuliani, has managed in the last two years.
The Americans also recorded impressive times, with Luke Hobson leading the way with 1:44.89, with fourth-place finisher Kieran Smith swimming 1:45.61.
The men’s 4x100m is a race that America has won at the last two Olympics, and every Games it was competed in pre-Sydney, where Australia ended decades of hurt thanks to that immortal quartet of Michael Klim, Chris Fydler, Ashley Callus and Ian Thorpe.
The USA looks like its dominance over Australia, at least, will continue in Paris.
America’s top three swimmers, Chris Guiliano (47.38), Jack Alexy (47.47) and Caeleb Dressel (47.53) all swam faster than Australia’s fastest, Kyle Chalmers (47.75), with fourth-placed Hunter Armstrong (47.78) just a fraction outside that time.
Australia’s likely team of Chalmers, Will Yang, Flynn Southam and Jack Cartwright will need to improve a fair amount just to sneak a medal.
Sports content to make you think… or allow you not to. A newsletter delivered each Saturday.
dan