Brisbane Broncos likely need an impossible eight wins out of nine games to play finals footy due to the way the bottom teams in the top eight have performed in 2026.
The Broncos missed the finals with 13 wins in 2022 and, even if they go on a miracle run and win all eight of their remaining games, having won just five so far this season, the best they can do is finish with 13.
On one level it appears ludicrous to suggest the defending premiers could perform such a feat, considering they have lost eight in a row.
But 14 of the grand final side that won the 2025 premiership will play Penrith away on Thursday night, attempting to replicate their seven victories in a row that took them to the title.
With the likes of Reece Walsh, Adam Reynolds, Patrick Carrigan and Payne Haas in the team there is a glimmer of hope.
However with two thirds of the season gone, the seventh and eighth-placed teams — the Dolphins and North Queensland — have both notched 10 wins and seven losses.
Just using those two sides as a gauge, if they win four of their remaining seven matches Brisbane can’t get ahead of them no matter if they’re victorious in all their games.
The 2022 premiership ladder, despite teams having just one bye back then compared to the current three, provides a stark snapshot of the challenge the Broncos face.
Brisbane won 13 matches that season and had 11 losses, but still missed the finals after finishing ninth, one win and place behind Canberra.
The issue for the Broncos this year is their negative points difference of 126. The Cowboys (-17) and Dolphins (+64) are well ahead so if they all finish on 13 wins Brisbane have a lot of ground to make up.
The Raiders also snuck into the top eight in 2023 with 13 victories. Newcastle made it in 2024 with 12 and last year the Sydney Roosters claimed eighth with 13.
Billy Walters, in the extended squad after an ACL recovery, said the side would not die wondering.
“It’s now or never this week against a tough team like Panthers,” the Brisbane utility noted.
“If you look at the positives, if we get two points this week against arguably the best team in the competition, the confidence that can bring is like a snowball effect.
“Once you get that first win, the next one comes a bit easier … and if you get one win, it can turn into two pretty quickly and then who knows what can happen.
“We’re getting a lot of troops back and basically back to full strength, so there’s no excuses anymore. If we don’t fire up and put a good performance in this week, then when are we?”
AAP
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