California’s jungle primary hits the finish line Tuesday. The good news for conservatives: Republican Steve Hilton still has a very real shot at making the November ballot. Former Biden HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading the field, but the race for that critical second runoff spot remains a toss-up.
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The final Emerson College poll before Election Day has Becerra at 28 percent, with billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer at 22 percent and Hilton at 21 percent, a statistical dead heat for second within the margin of error. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is at 12 percent, and the rest of the Democrat pile, Katie Porter and Matt Mahan, are limping along at 5 percent each.
Becerra didn’t earn his rise. Party officials engineered it. He was at 5 percent in March. His gains came after party officials strong-armed lower-tier candidates out of the race, and the field was further scrambled by Eric Swalwell’s dramatic exit. Since mid-May, Becerra has gained nine points, Steyer five, and Hilton four.
Emerson found that 88 percent of his voters say they will “definitely” support him, the highest commitment rate of any candidate in the race, tied only with Bianco.
“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit.”
Bianco supporters are sitting on 12 percent of the vote. If even a fraction of that shifts to Hilton on Tuesday, Steyer is in trouble. Steyer, meanwhile, is banking on turning out younger and more progressive voters. That’s not exactly a reliable Election Day coalition.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, the largest in the race at more than 5,000 likely voters, has Becerra at 25 percent, Hilton at 21 percent, and Steyer at 19 percent.
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Among voters who had already returned ballots, Hilton led outright at 29 percent. Republicans are voting early, and they’re voting for Hilton.
Hilton led in Orange County, the Central Valley, and the North Coast/Sierra. Becerra is racking up votes in Los Angeles, Steyer is competitive in the Bay Area, and Bianco leads in the Inland Empire, his home county.
An earlier Public Policy Institute of California survey from mid-May had Hilton within three points of Becerra at 20 percent to 23 percent before the late Democratic consolidation. Given how much has shifted since then, consider those numbers a floor, not a ceiling, for what Hilton can do Tuesday.
Democrats spent most of this year in chaos of their own making. A bloated field of candidates had the party staring down the possibility of an all-Republican November runoff, a nightmare scenario that had party bosses in a panic. They pushed lower-tier candidates out in March.
Hilarious Backfire: CA Democrat’s Pitch for Governor Turns Into an Argument Against Democrats
Then, in April, Congressman Eric Swalwell, at that point a frontrunner, abruptly resigned from Congress and dropped out of the race entirely after sexual assault allegations surfaced. The remaining Democratic votes consolidated around Becerra almost by default. He didn’t build a coalition so much as inherit one by process of elimination. Republicans, meanwhile, stayed largely unified behind Hilton and Bianco.
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Republicans are showing up. More than 2.8 million ballots had already been returned before the final weekend, and GOP voters were outpacing Democrats in return rates by nearly five points, 16.9 percent versus 12.1 percent. In a race this close, that kind of structural advantage matters.
If Hilton finishes second, California’s governor’s race becomes a rare general election contest where a Republican actually has a path. That’s not nothing in a state that’s been a one-party show for over a decade.
California voters head to the polls on June 2. Watch that second-place finish.
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