With the second round of Brazil’s municipal elections coming up on October 27, criminal groups are increasingly being caught using new financial methods to sway results in addition to the violence they have traditionally used to influence the political scene.
Brazilian lawmakers reported an unprecedented volume of corruption, vote buying, and organized crime infiltration during the current vote period, the first round of which happened on October 6.
According to the Federal Police, authorities seized more than 50 million reais (around $8 million) in 2024 related to vote buying and the use of money by parties and candidates without declaring it to the election authorities.
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Election-related money seizures from 2020 and 2022, when the country held its last municipal and federal elections respectively, did not amount to more than 10 million reais (around $1.7 million) per election cycle, highlighting an unprecedented level of such irregularities this year.
The Superior Electoral Court also registered similar evidence, and lawmakers have made it a focus during their campaign speeches. “Concrete cases revealed that the First Capital Command (Primeiro Comando da Capital – PCC) is entrenched in public contracts. I suppose they’re [involved] in election campaigning too,” legislator Kiko Celeguim said in a speech reported by Folha, although he presented no evidence.
The reliance of criminal groups on violence remains, using it to manipulate the most recent elections via shootings, beating, or riots, or seeking to protect their interests by lowering voter turnout and protecting certain candidates. There was an increase of more than 40% in the number of attacks against local officials in 2024, according to the non-profit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED).
On October 3, for example, three men on a motorcycle assaulted and injured a candidate for city council in Barra do Piraí, in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Two days later, an armed man shot at the car of a city councilor and mayoral candidate during a motorcade in Valparaíso, in the state of São Paulo.
These trends reflect electoral violence patterns that have been reported by ACLED in previous elections, but combined with a higher level of illicit money flows than ever before.
InSight Crime Analysis
A heightened police focus on targeting illicit funds could go some way to explaining the record amount of money seized in 2024. The Federal Police intensified its fight against financial electoral crimes this year, carrying out more than 60 operations focused on organized crime involvement before the first round of elections. This represents an increase of more than 200% in comparison to the last municipal elections in 2020.
The states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro were the worst affected by election-related violence in the months leading to the elections, according to ACLED data. Those states are home to the PCC and the Red Command (Comando Vermelho – CV), respectively.
Criminal groups rely on violence to target local officials and influence elections in the two states that are home to the most influential gangs in Brazil. As a result, political actors fear moves such as coercion and mobility restrictions from criminal groups in certain communities to manipulate who is allowed to vote, according to a report by the Organization of American States (OAS).
Gangs may be more focused on financial efforts in regions such as the north, where their infiltration in elections is often linked to illegal logging and mining, for example. The smaller amount of violent incidents recorded in states other than Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo suggests that the situation varies across the country.