Colombia’s government has ended peace talks with the country’s largest remaining guerrilla group after a deadly attack on a military base, effectively extinguishing the prospects for a deal with the group and leaving it stronger than when the negotiations started.
Petro announced the suspension of peace talks with the National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – ELN) following an explosive attack by the group on a military base in Arauquita, Arauca, close to the border with Venezuela. The assault left two soldiers dead and more than two dozen injured, according to the Colombian Ministry of Defense.
This attack is the latest in a string of violent incidents involving the ELN in recent months. The group has targeted key infrastructure, including the Caño Limón-Coveñas and Bicentenario oil pipelines, causing widespread service disruptions and environmental damage. The ELN is also suspected of killing two soldiers in Tame, Arauca, on September 1, and imposing a nine-day armed strike in the pacific department of Chocó in August.
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Violence has escalated since a bilateral ceasefire between the ELN and the Colombian government expired on August 3. Prior to that, negotiations had been stalled over the past seven months.
The crisis began in February when ELN leaders opposed the government’s decision to open a “regional dialogue” with the Comuneros del Sur, a dissident ELN faction in Nariño. The group had started parallel negotiations with the government without the approval of the guerrilla group’s top leadership and eventually split from the ELN.
The Petro administration formally authorized a negotiation with the Comuneros del Sur on September 16, just one day before the attack on the Arauca military base.
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The collapse of negotiations with the ELN suggests that Petro’s Total Peace plan may be taking its last breath, as the ELN continues to consolidate power along the Colombian-Venezuelan border.
The ELN remains protected in Venezuela due to its relationship with President Nicolás Maduro, who is still in control following the disputed July 28 elections. The ELN allegedly patrolled the streets and pressured residents to vote for Maduro in areas under its influence. The protection the group receives gives it little incentive to continue talks in Colombia. For now, it has secured a safe haven in Venezuela, where it can remain involved in various criminal economies, including drug trafficking, mining, and extortion.
The Manuel Vásquez Castaño Eastern War Front (Frente de Guerra Oriental Manuel Vásquez Castaño – FGO) of the ELN, which controls much of Colombia’s border region in Arauca, Boyacá, Vichada, and Casanare, was responsible for the recent attack on the military base in Arauquita.
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A previously attempted peace process with the ELN ended when the FGO orchestrated a car bombing at a police academy in Bogotá in January 2019, which killed 23 people and injured 87 others. That attack prompted Petro’s predecessor, Iván Duque, to halt the peace negotiations with the ELN that had begun during the administration of Duque’s predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos.
“With the exception of some structures in Chocó and Cauca, the ELN has practically concentrated on the Colombia-Venezuela border and hopes that the destabilization in Venezuela will give it breathing room,” Petro said in a post on the social media site X.
The FGO also maintains a significant presence in the Venezuelan states of Apure, Táchira, and Amazonas, where it has developed a mutually beneficial relationship with the Venezuelan government. The regime relies on the ELN to exert social and criminal control in these areas, while the ELN depends on the regime’s tacit approval to operate freely and engage in its criminal activities.
Featured image: The dump truck used in the ELN attack on a military base in Arauca, Colombia. Credit: Colombian Army