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The dramatic arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro this weekend poses three key questions about the future of the criminal groups and dynamics in the South American country and Latin America.
Firstly, what is to become of the Cartel of the Suns? Maduro was removed for being what President Trump calls a “narco-terrorist” – a reference to his alleged chief role in this criminal group. But InSight Crime has repeatedly pointed out via in depth research, that the network isn’t a hierarchical cartel but rather a fragmented corruption scheme of many actors in the military and state machinery that offers protection for drug shipments moving through Venezuela, mostly from Colombia. Its non-hierarchical nature means the removal of Maduro alone could do little to hinder its operations.
So far, key figures in the regime, such as Diosdado Cabello and Vladimir Padrino, who have been accused by US authorities of involvement in drug trafficking, are still in their posts in Venezuela.
Secondly, there’s the ELN, the Colombian guerrilla group. Its expansion into Venezuela and support from the Maduro regime have been a key advantage for the group, which excels in drug trafficking and illegal mining. With Maduro gone, will what remains of the government continue to provide the ELN with a safe haven from the Colombian government, with whom peace talks have been suspended?
And finally, what of the criminal structures that have become institutionalized over the years, such as armed colectivos? Their role has traditionally been to preserve the status quo in pro-Chavista strongholds across the country’s main urban centers via a type of criminal governance. With Maduro gone, their future will rely on their relationship with what’s left of the government and whether they can maintain their hold in communities across the country.
Rather than a collapse, what lies ahead is a reshuffling. Criminal networks long tied to Maduro are entering a pivotal phase, focused on protecting the revenues that enriched them for years.
For a deeper dive into all of these criminal groups and dynamics in Venezuela, visit our Venezuela page at InSight Crime.org.