Authorities in Mexico have carried out a series of unprecedented security operations in a crackdown on the country’s top criminal groups as the threat of US tariffs looms. But the bigger question remains: Will these efforts be enough to placate the Trump administration and stabilize bilateral security cooperation?
The historic crackdown culminated February 27, when Mexican authorities handed over 29 criminal leaders to the United States in an unprecedented move to face organized crime-related charges. US Attorney General Pamela Bondi said that the Mexican government agreed to move forward with the historic transfer after the United States designated several of Mexico’s crime groups as foreign terrorist organizations, rather than going through the usual court proceedings associated with extradition requests.
SEE ALSO: What You Need to Know About the Criminal Groups the US Just Labeled ‘Terrorists’
Among those sent were some of Mexico’s most infamous drug traffickers that led the consolidation of various transnational criminal organizations still operating today. These included former Guadalajara Cartel leader and later Sinaloa Cartel associate Rafael Caro Quintero; former Zetas leaders Miguel and Omar Treviño Morales; Vicente Carrillo, alias “El Viceroy,” from the Juárez Cartel; Erick Valencia, one of the founders of the Jalisco Cartel New Generation (Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación – CJNG); and José Jésus Méndez Vargas, alias “El Chango,” who was once a prominent leader of the Familia Michoacana.
Mexico’s Public Security Minister Omar García Harfuch stated in a post on X that the transfer of these prisoners, in collaboration with the US Department of Justice, was a sign that “coordination and reciprocity, when carried out with respect for sovereignty, lead to good results.”
The transfers came as US and Mexican officials conducted high-level negotiations in Washington, DC, aimed at reaching an agreement with the Trump administration, who has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, if the country did not take more aggressive measures to counter the flow of fentanyl and migrants.
Mexico’s Crackdown
Since Trump’s initial tariff threat on February 1, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has responded with a series of similar high-profile security actions to signal her commitment to combating organized crime. She initially secured a one-month delay on the tariffs, in part by deploying 10,000 national guard troops to the US-Mexico border ostensibly to crack down on drug trafficking and migrant smuggling.
Sheinbaum also launched a massive anti-fentanyl campaign targeting schools, with advertisements saturating major cities and radio stations – a move that won Trump’s public approval as a “great idea.”
(New warnings show the Mexican government’s new campaign to fight fentanyl consumption in Mexico City. Photo: Victoria Dittmar)
Most importantly, perhaps, Mexican authorities have prioritized key arrests. Days before the February high-level negotiations in Washington, DC, armed forces captured two top security chiefs allegedly responsible for protecting Iván Archivaldo Guzmán, a leader of the Chapitos faction of the Sinaloa Cartel, which US officials have repeatedly described as one of the main criminal organizations behind the fentanyl crisis.
The following week, the Mexican government formally extradited three other members of prominent criminal organizations to the United States, including Jesús Ricardo Patron Sanchez, alias “H3,” from the H-2 Cartel – a splinter group of the Beltrán Leyva Organization (BLO) – Daniel Franco López, alias “Micha,” from the Sinaloa Cartel; and Omar Cuenca Merino, an alleged leader of the Rojos.
And in previous weeks, authorities arrested financial and logistical operators of the Chapitos, including alias “El Jando,” who was reportedly involved in two separate attempts to free Ovidio Guzmán López – another Chapitos leader – from authorities in 2019 and 2023, when he was ultimately captured.
In parallel, security forces have dismantled dozens of clandestine drug labs in and around Culiacán, Sinaloa, the Chapitos’ stronghold and arguably the epicenter of synthetic drug production in Mexico. Authorities also have reportedly seized more than one ton of illicit fentanyl.
The crackdown may be having an impact. The New York Times, citing interviews with criminal operatives, reported parts of the Sinaloa Cartel were laying off employees and going into hiding.
And while Sheinbaum initially took combative tone with the US administration, she acknowledged during a February 19 press conference that the recent increase in US drone surveillance over Mexican territory to collect intelligence on criminal groups was part of ongoing bilateral security cooperation.
These actions mark a significant shift from the years of sporadic, often anemic, efforts to fight organized crime, epitomized by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s famous tagline for his security strategy: abrazos no balazos (hugs not bullets).
Under López Obrador, bilateral security cooperation stalled. The Mexican government restricted the ability of US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents to operate in the country and routinely criticized long-standing issues with the agency’s foreign operations, especially its work with controversial Sensitive Investigative Units (SIU) that have since been disbanded in the country. López Obrador also repeatedly dismissed Mexico’s role in the fentanyl trade, framing it as a US problem and denying the existence of any illicit production within the country.
Can Trump Be Placated?
Despite what appears to be a good faith effort to strike at the core of some of the country’s most sprawling criminal networks, Sheinbaum’s efforts may not satisfy Trump. In fact, in recent days, the US president has reiterated his threat to impose tariffs starting March 4.
US diplomats are also hedging with their famously unpredictable leader. During the February 27 bilateral meetings, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio “expressed appreciation” for Mexico’s security measures. But in a previous interview, he stressed that the US government was still expecting their counterparts to “do more” and make sure their current efforts “are enduring.”
Ironically, the rift risks completely upending major parts of the anti-crime fight. To begin with, it would walk back what has recently become a successful collaboration and intelligence sharing between the United States and Mexico after the often combative relationship under López Obrador.
The US military’s Northern Command, for example, announced on February 19 that it had come to a new understanding with its Mexican counterparts for “increased information sharing” and “immediate communications.” And Mexico’s defense secretary, Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, said this type of cooperation played a key role in the recent arrests of several top members of the Chapitos in Culiacán.
However, violence is still raging across Sinaloa, and experts told InSight Crime that any future advances may be at risk if Trump follows through with the tariffs, or even if he delays them but keeps that threat on the table long-term.
SEE ALSO: Why Trump’s Tariffs Won’t Slow the Flow of Migrants or Fentanyl From Mexico
“If the US government makes these impossible demands that can never be met and moves forward with the tariffs on Mexico, then what incentive is there to work with the United States if they’re going to get punished anyway,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior investigator at the Brookings Institution.
“The more important thing is to establish patterns of cooperation that would be effective and lasting,” Felbab-Brown told InSight Crime. “But that can all be erased if the goal is impossible or Mexico’s compliance is viewed as insufficient.”
‘High-Profile’ Results
So far, threats of tariffs and other heavy-handed measures, including potential US military action, have pushed the Mexican government to deliver immediate, “high-profile results,” said Paloma Mendoza, a researcher at the Center for Security, Intelligence, and Governance Studies at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México – ITAM).
“Rarely in recent history have we seen a similar sequence [of seizures and arrests] by security institutions,” Mendoza told InSight Crime.
But while these types of spectacular actions are symbolic, they come at a steep cost. More than 800 people have already been killed since the conflict in Sinaloa kicked off in September 2024 following the highly contentious US arrest of Ismael Zambada García, alias “El Mayo,” according to official data.
And some of Sheinbaum’s responses to Trump have already put pressure on the country’s 2025 approved budget. The campaign against fentanyl, for example, has consumed at least 5% of the education budget, according to data obtained by El Sol de México.
Still, the back-and-forth between both countries, fueled by Trump’s economic pressure and alienating narrative, is likely to continue throughout his presidency, according to Yadira Gálvez, a professor of international relations at Mexico’s National Autonomous University (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México – UNAM).
And whether this can be sustained over time or prove effective in the long run remains to be seen.
“Mexico’s response can no longer be merely reactive. Both countries need to reach sustainable agreements that take their respective priorities into account,” Gálvez told InSight Crime.
Featured image: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President Donald Trump. Credit: InSight Crime.