In Niger, China’s path to stability may diverge from Western security priorities

In Niger, Chinese companies have investments in oil and uranium. CNPC is building a 2,000km (1,243 mile) crude oil pipeline from Niger’s southeastern oilfields to a port terminal in neighbouring Benin. But work at the pipeline project may have stopped after the Chinese embassy in Niger told Chinese citizens in Niger to “be vigilant” and “avoid going out”.

Zhou Yuyuan, a senior fellow and deputy director at the Centre for West Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said China would continue to support peace efforts led by the United Nations, and has pledged to provide financial support and equipment to the African Union and the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

While Beijing had increased its peace and security cooperation with African countries, its security role in Africa was still weak and could be described as supportive or complementary, Zhou said.

“Facing the rising security needs of the Sahel region, I think China may continue to support the United Nations, the African Union and regional security forces to play a major role in solving the security threats, and even possibly support France and the European Union to play active roles,” he said.

David Shinn, a China-Africa expert and professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said both Washington and Beijing would seek political stability in the Sahel.

But while Washington preferred to work with democratic leaders, Shinn said Beijing was willing to work with either democratic or authoritarian governments to maintain stability.

China has never supported active military engagement in Africa, and that is not likely to change, Shinn said. “China provided several hundred peacekeepers to the UN peacekeeping operation in Mali, but they were involved in defensive operations and, in any event, will soon be leaving with the ending of the UN mission there,” he said, adding that Beijing was unlikely to fill the gap left by France or the US.

“Even if French and American forces are forced out of the area, it is unlikely that China will want to fill the void in this increasingly treacherous environment.”

Benjamin Barton, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said China’s active presence in the security dynamics of the Sahel region would appear to be limited and restricted to a diplomatic role.

“Unlike France, Beijing is unlikely to lead or form part of a spontaneous military coalition to restore stability,” Barton said.

China’s main geopolitical interest in the region is the status quo and further curating its image and budding influence, he said.

“I would foresee China possibly playing a diplomatic role here, but given how critical this situation is for the French state, China may want to take a back seat and focus more on matters of direct concern, such as evacuating its nationals and seeking ways of protecting Chinese investments in case the situation escalates,” he said.